Football | 12/3/2015 4:16:00 PM

THURSDAY UPDATE - 2 DAYS AWAY

One thing we've discussed a lot during the last few broadcasts has been the 2015 senior class as the collegiate careers of 27 Texas State players wind down. Those seniors had a special moment two weeks ago in winning their final home game over ULM and will look to create another this weekend against Arkansas State. While each of those players will be missed and their stories have been great to tell, it's also a time to look ahead and see what the future holds for the Texas State roster.
 
Let's focus on the offense where the team will look vastly different next season than it will this Saturday in Jonesboro. Two offensive lineman will be gone (seniors Adrian Bellard and Brandon Sarabia) while the team's top two tight ends (Ryan Carden and Lawrence White), three leading receivers (Brandon Smith, C.J. Best and Jafus Gaines) and top running back (Robert Lowe) are also seniors. Here's a breakdown of what exactly Texas State is losing when the season comes to a close:
 

PLAYER	POSITION	KEY CAREER STATS*
Adrian Bellard	Tackle	35 starts
Brandon Sarabia	Guard	14 starts
Ryan Carden	Tight End	45 catches, 509 yards, 4 TD
Lawrence White	Tight End	21 catches, 297 yards, 6 TD
Brandon Smith	Wide Receiver	109 catches, 1,253 yards, 7 TD…1,613 KO return yards, 3 TD
C.J. Best	Wide Receiver	1,267 total offensive yards, 4 TD
Jafus Gaines	Wide Receiver	80 catches, 910 yards, 6 TD…980 KO return yards
Robert Lowe	Running Back	3,027 rushing yards, 29 rushing touchdowns

*stats prior to finale at Arkansas State
 
That's A LOT of production to lose on offense and that list doesn't include RB Chris Nutall, who's Texas State career ended due to a broken leg suffered in the Sun Belt conference opener this season at UL Lafayette.
 
So who fills those voids next season? Perhaps we got an answer at running back this past week as Tyler Siudzinski filled in for a banged up Robert Lowe and ran for 170 yards on 24 carries against Idaho. If Lowe is again hobbled this Saturday, it will be interesting to see how Siudzinski runs the ball against a more formidable defense in Arkansas State's. Based on what we've seen so far, it would appear that Siudzinksi will have an opportunity to be the team's starter at running back next season. It may not be a lock though as there are eight non-senior running backs currently on the roster. Couple those with the upcoming recruiting class and it should make for a lot of competition for carries in 2016.
 
As for the other positions, the answers are harder to come up with. On the offensive line, Felix Romero will return next season after suffering a season-ending knee injury at UL Lafayette and can slide right back into his starting guard spot. Kian Schoeborn, who stepped in for Romero as the primary starter at right guard, has played well and will likely be the starting guard opposite of Romero next season. The tackle opposite of Ryan Melton next year for the departing Bellard is a head scratcher. The duo has taken an overwhelming majority of the snaps this season.
 
Glancing at wide receiver, the trio listed in the chart above has been responsible for over 6,000 all-purpose yards and 20 touchdowns. The non-senior receivers on the roster have combined for 418 all-purpose yards and 5 touchdowns, almost all of which is comes from Demun Mercer (289 yards, 4 TD) and Brice Gunter (120 yards, 1 TD). The latter has had to sit out all season due to a knee injury suffered early in fall camp. Those two are likely to be leaned upon heavily next season but after that is a big question mark. One player to keep an eye on is Justin Gamble who the coaches have been very high on and is redshirting this season. Tight end might be the biggest question mark as there's only been five catches by players at the position this season not named Lawrence White or Ryan Carden.
 
Defensively, the Bobcats are losing three of this season's top four tacklers (linebackers Trey McGowen and Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon and safety Aaron Shaw) and their best cornerback in David Mims II. Key returning players on defense are defensive end Karee Berry (team high 5.5 TFL and team leading 3.0 sacks), defensive tackle Dallas McClarty, defensive back Javante O'Roy and safety Damani Alexcee (team-high 75 tackles). However, of the team's 11 projected defensive starters this Saturday at Arkansas State, six of them are seniors. Like the offense, the Texas State defense will look markedly different in 2016 and the replacements may not necessarily be on the roster right now.
 
The unknown of next season's team will make for an interesting off-season, between signing day in February and the position battles in Spring Ball this upcoming March/April. For now the focus is on Arkansas State and giving next year's team something to build upon going into that aforementioned off-season while also giving this year's senior class a win to end their careers. Here's five things to know about the game.
 
1- Arkansas State is the Sun Belt's top program right now
Since Texas State joined the Sun Belt, it's been said that the bar the Bobcats need to reach is the one set by UL Lafayette which has had four straight nine-win seasons and four straight New Orleans Bowl titles (streaks that will both end this year in what's been a down season for ULL). No argument here, the Cajuns have had a tremendous run and just about anyone in the conference would do anything to reach those goals.
 
….Except maybe Arkansas State. The Red Wolves tend to get 'slightly' overlooked since the Cajuns' have played in the Sun Belt's marquee bowl the past four years, but A-State has arguably the better body of work between the two and anyone else in the conference. The Red Wolves have already clinched a share of this year's conference title, their fourth in the last five years (the Cajuns have one, which they shared with A-State in 2013). Arkansas State is a ridiculous 32-6 in conference play the last five seasons compared to ULL's record of 27-11. This is not to demean anything the Cajuns have done, but rather to point out that Arkansas State is the one that has set the bar, and they've set it pretty damn high.
 
The Red Wolves have 45 all-conference selections over the past three seasons (with plenty more to come at season's end soon) and their 43 wins since 2011 is eighth most among Group of 5 programs. To enjoy this much success with SO MUCH turnover (current head coach Blake Anderson is in his second season, before that the Red Wolves had four coaches in four years) is truly remarkable.
 
2- Texas State beat that program a season ago…convincingly
The Bobcats have been a part of 22 Sun Belt conference games and their 45-27 win over the Red Wolves last season is easily the best they've played of those 22. Texas State never trailed in the game and gashed Arkansas State for 370 yards rushing led by Lowe's 236 yard, four touchdown night. C.J. Best also had a big game, piling up 143 yards of total offense, including a 70-yard catch-and-run touchdown. The Red Wolves were missing key players on defense that night but the Bobcats never took their foot off the pedal in what was an impressive win. That game may very well serve as a source of motivation for A-State this Saturday but it should also serve as a confidence boost for Texas State: they've played well against this team before.
 
3- Arkansas State's offense attacks quickly and often
Prior to the game at Idaho last week, I broke down just how methodical the Vandals' offense was and how they produced points by churning out drives instead of relying on a lot of big plays. Lo and behold, Idaho scored three of its five touchdowns on drives of 6 plays or more (including an 18-play drive bridging the end of the third quarter and start of the fourth).
 
Arkansas State scoffs at that notion. Of the Red Wolves' 49 scoring drives, 31 have consumed fewer than two minutes. That comes out to 63.3 percent, the highest percentage of less than 2:00 scoring drives in the nation. The Red Wolves have more drives of four plays or less (21) than they do of nine plays or more (16). The reason for these gaudy numbers is due to two things:
 
First, the Red Wolves have been absolutely gashing teams with big plays. Arkansas State has 59 offensive plays of 20 yards or more (Idaho had 20 such plays going into last week's game) and 17 plays of 40 yards or more.
 
Secondly, A-State's drives are so short in terms of plays and time consumed because of their field position. On average, the Red Wolves start their drives at the opponent's 35 yard line. That's A) just insane and B) the product of a defense that has forced 31 turnovers, tied for the most in the nation. If you want a reason why the Red Wolves are 8-3, you can stop there.
 
4- The Bobcats have played well in regular season finales
No matter whether or not Texas State has truly had something to play for in its final game of the season, the Bobcats have played good football in their finales in recent years. Dating back to the 2005 season, Texas State has won 6 of its 10 regular season finales and two of the last three. Since joining the FBS three years ago, the Bobcats have averaged 49 PPG in their finales including 66 points against New Mexico State in 2012. Texas State will be tested more this Saturday than they were against those Aggies or against Georgia State last year, but it's been nice seeing the team charge through the finish line rather than limp past it.
 
5- There's just not many chinks in the Red Wolves' armor
Every week when preparing for a broadcast, I look to see where an opponent is vulnerable. As you can probably attain from some of the previous bullet points, there really aren't many weaknesses for this week's opponent. The Red Wolves are loaded at EVERY position group. They rank in the top three in the Sun Belt in six of nine major defensive statistical categories and offensively, the Red Wolves are the No. 1 scoring team in the conference at just a shade under 40 points per game. Kicker J.D. Houston is 10 of 11 on field goal attempts this season, punter Luke Ferguson has pinned opponents inside their own 20 a conference-leading 28 times this season. Returners J.D. McKissic (kickoffs) and Blaise Taylor (punts) have each returned kicks for touchdowns this year.
 
The only chinks I could find is that A-State's red-zone offense hasn't been great (78 percent scoring rate is the worst in the conference) and the Red Wolves are the most penalized team in the Sun Belt. But those two "concerns" are heavily masked by everything else Arkansas State does. This is as good as a Sun Belt team I've seen in the last three seasons. If the Bobcats can pull off the upset and spoil A-State's hopes at an unbeaten conference season, it would make for both an impressive senior sendoff and building block for immediate future of the Texas State program. 

Eat 'em up!
Brant Freeman
 

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TUESDAY UPDATE - 4 DAYS AWAY

Head Coach Dennis Franchione discusses building relationships and impacting players on the team and what the goal for the team is going into Arkansas State.




Junior cornerback Javante O'Roy touched on Arkansas State's offense and the mindset of the defense going into the final game of the season.




Running back Tyler Siudzinski talks about his strengths as a running back and how he can build on his performance against Idaho going into the game at Arkansas State.