Football | 11/5/2015 5:50:00 PM

THURSDAY UPDATE - 2 DAYS AWAY

November will be a defining month for Texas State's 2015 season.
 
The Bobcats limp into the year's eleventh month at 2-5, badly banged up on the offensive line, just now returning to full health on defense and with the team's confidence shaky after a 37-13 loss at Georgia Southern last week, Texas State's fourth loss this season by 22 points or more.  Whether it's been the injuries, an inconsistent schedule format, a treacherous non-conference minefield, a midseason coaching change, or simply bad play, the Bobcats have yet to establish any footing in 2015.
 
Last year the team stayed relatively healthy (with the exception of LB Mike Orakpo's season ending knee injury in the second game of the season vs. Navy) and played a non-conference schedule far more favorable than this season's and rode into Sun Belt play 2-2.  The Bobcats won three of their first four conference games and by November 2^nd, Texas State was 5-3.  By this time last year, the team had an identity.  The running back tandem of Robert Lowe & Terrence Franks was clicking, David Mayo was a tackling machine, Tyler Jones was getting comfortable running the no-huddle offense, etc.  Currently, the Robin to Robert Lowe's Batman is unknown after the season-ending injury to Chris Nutall.  It's difficult to say exactly who has been Texas State's best defensive player given the unit's struggles.  Jones hasn't looked comfortable throwing the football in a month. 
 
If those issues are to be corrected (with the exception perhaps of Lowe's running mate as he's shown the ability to take on a heavier load), then November would be as good a time as any.  The collective record of the Bobcats' November opponents is 7-24.  This is BY FAR the most favorable window of Texas State's season and if the Bobcats don't come charging through that window (read: 4-0) then the season will have fallen short of expectations.  If Texas State takes care of business and heads into December 6-5 then we'll look back at November and say that's when the team turned the season around and the Bobcats were more than capable of putting their rough start behind them.  If not, then we'll say November showed us that this year's team was indeed flawed.
 
With that said, Texas State is in no position to think this upcoming stretch of games will be easy.  While the Bobcats beat all of this season's November opponents last year, A) three of those four games were decided by eight points or less and B) most of those teams have improved from last year with the *possible* exception of ULM.  First up in November is New Mexico State this Saturday from Bobcat Stadium.  Here's five things you should know about the game.
 
1- Aggie running back Larry Rose III is quietly one of the Sun Belt's best RBs
 
In a conference featuring Matt Breida (Georgia Southern), Elijah McGuire (UL Lafayette), Michael Gordon (Arkansas State), Marcus Cox (Appalachian State), Elijah Penny (Idaho) and Lowe, the mantle of "best running back in the Sun Belt" is tough to figure out.  Rose makes that debate even harder and he might actually be having the best season amongst his peers. 
 
Breida leads the Sun Belt (and is fourth in the nation) in rushing with 1,158 yards this season and the Bobcats saw firsthand just how explosive that dude is.  Some of his success (I want to stress this because he is a phenomenal player) is a product of Georgia Southern's offense.  The others listed above are having good seasons as well and in the case of Cox and Penny, career seasons thus far. 
 
Against Georgia Southern, defenses have to honor QB Kevin Ellison's run ability allowing Breida to thrive.  Ditto for Gordon and QB Fredi Knighten at Arkansas State.  Cox and Penny have solid-to-really good passing games at Appalachian State and Idaho, respectively, to help open up the running game. 
 
Well, New Mexico State's passing game has just been OK.  The trio of QBs who have gotten playing time for the Aggies (more on that later) have completed 52% of its passes with a TD-INT ratio of 14-9.  Those quarterbacks haven't been huge threats in running the ball themselves: a collective 240 yards in eight games.  There's little doubt that on the opposing team's defensive chalkboard the message of STOP LARRY ROSE is circled over and over.  Yet, Rose has already rushed for over a thousand yards (he's seventh in the nation in rushing) and just 20 games into his career, he's the Aggies' sixth all-time leading rusher.  He ran for 212 last week in New Mexico State's come-from-behind win over Idaho, making runs like this along the way.  He gashed the Bobcats last year for 181 yards and three scores.  Circle his name more on the chalkboard if you have to, he IS the New Mexico State offense.
 
2- Both teams are hurting and neither one feels sorry for the other
 
The Bobcats' injury woes have been well chronicled.  From players lost for the season (including Nutall, Brice Gunter, Jackson Hoskins, and Felix Romero) to those who have missed significant playing time (Tim Gay, Dallas McClarty, Dondre Elvoid, Mershad Dillon, Landon Beck, Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon, Stephen Smith, Dila Rosemond), the Bobcats have had a busier training room than they would like and the Aggies can relate.
 
New Mexico State will take the field on Saturday without their top two quarterbacks (Tyler Rodgers and Andrew Allen), their best receiver (Teldrick Morgan), top safety (Jaden Wright) and starting LG (Isaiah Folasa).  That's football, and it's rare that you reach this point of the season without a few injuries along the way.  It's up to those teams to overcome the inevitability of injuries and the opposition to exploit the holes left behind.  Simply put, the team that can do both will win the game.
 
3- Third string quarterback you say?
 
That's right, the Aggies are down to their third stringer this Saturday: Nick Jeanty.  Rodgers suffered a thumb injury earlier in the season and Allen left the game against Idaho last week with a knee injury he suffered on New Mexico State's final drive of regulation.  Jeanty took over with just over a minute left and threw a couple of passes (including a crucial 23-yard completion to Josh Bowen in overtime), but mainly handed the ball off to Rose during his time at quarterback.  Per Aggies head coach Doug Martin, neither Rodgers nor Allen are available this Saturday and the reigns of the offense will be handled by Jeanty, a redshirt freshman from Miramar, Florida where he played for the 13^th ranked team in the state.
 
Beyond the previous two sentences, we don't know much else about Jeanty which can be dicey.  A year ago the Bobcats played against an unknown, third string quarterback in Hunter Vaughn at South Alabama and lost.  And again, at 2-5 the Bobcats aren't in a position to take anyone lightly just because the opponent is hurting at quarterback.  The 'Cats need to stay in high alert no matter the circumstances on Saturday.
 
4- Bobcat Stadium could cure what's ailing Texas State right now
 
It's no secret that teams play better at home no matter the sport or at what level.  The Bobcats have been no exception this season although the quality of opponent has mattered more than location (it obviously would've been a tall order to beat Florida State or Houston at home for example).  Although Texas State's road opponents have been superior to the Bobcats' home opponents, the home/road splits for the Bobcat offense this season are telling:
 

Home (3 games)	PPG for: 49.7	Turnovers: 3	3 and outs: 8	Record: 2-1
Road (4 games)	PPG for: 17.5	Turnovers: 8	3 and outs: 20	Record: 0-4

 
Again, the quality of opponent between home/road are pretty one-sided, but if you remove the Florida State Houston and Prairie View A&M games (leaving the rest of the playing field fairly even), the numbers still paint the picture of Texas State playing better at home:
 

Home (2 games)	PPG for: 43.0	Turnovers: 1	3 and outs: 7	Record: 1-1
Road (2 games)	PPG for: 20.0	Turnovers: 3	3 and outs: 11	Record: 0-2

 
The sample size here is admittedly small but in a 12-game season you only have so much to work with.  If the numbers do hold up, then Texas State could very well turn its season around.
 
5- There's a "curse" on the New Mexico State program
 
Whether or not you believe in curses is up to you but all I'm going to say is that the last World Series pennant flying at Wrigley Field is from 1908 so there.
 
Anyways, from 1958 to 1967, New Mexico State was coached by Warren Woodson who guided the Aggies to a pair of Sun Bowl titles and in 1960, NMSU finished the season ranked 17^th in the country.  Seven years later, Woodson was forced to resign and since then the Aggies have had four winning seasons and have not been to a bowl since 1960.  The (now) 55-year drought is the longest in the FBS.  Woodson would later return to coaching at Trinity University in San Antonio, but as far as New Mexico State is concerned, longtime followers of the program believe his unceremonious exit has left a hex on the program. 
 
There have been moments for the Aggies, such as a memorable 35-7 win at Arizona State in 1999 (the Sun Devils were just three years removed from an appearance in the Rose Bowl).  But the moments have been few and far between and the last decade has been especially trying on Aggie football.  Between bouncing from different conference homes (including a one year stint as an FBS independent) to a difficult recruiting zone (with so few D-I prospects in New Mexico, the Aggies have to venture elsewhere and have players from 16 different states on their roster), it's been a rough stretch.  Over the past 10+ seasons, New Mexico State is 26-105 and has lost 24 of its last 25 road games.
 
The Bobcats would like nothing more than to keep that trend going and get their season trending in the right direction.
 
Eat 'Em Up!
Brant Freeman
 

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WEDNESDAY UPDATE - 3 DAYS AWAY

After practice Wednesday, Head Coach Dennis Franchione took time to talk to us about how he prepares his team for the weather, but, more importantly, how the team could be set up to make a strong run to end the season.



Senior running back Robert Lowe talks about the team's opportunity to start picking up some wins as well as what it feels like to be an every-down running back.


 

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE - 4 DAYS AWAY

The Bobcats are headed into Saturday's Homecoming matchup against New Mexico State after a bit of a break from playing last Thursday. Head Coach Dennis Franchione had the opportunity to watch New Mexico State and the Aggies' furious comeback agianst Idaho this week. In today's video, he talks about NMSU and how the Sun Belt Conference has benefited Texas State.




Senior offensive lineman Zach Crawford discusses the long break between games as well as the benefits of playing under offensive line coach Brad Bedell.


 

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TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE - 4 DAYS AWAY
 
 

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SUNDAY UPDATE - 6 DAYS AWAY

Start of the Home Stretch
With a squirrely schedule including two games in six days last week, the Bobcats are gratefully welcoming the three straight contests at home in the month of November. New Mexico State, a team that came from behind for the win Saturday against Idaho, is the first up in the line of home games for Texas State.
 
Impressions on New Mexico State and their come from behind victory against Idaho…
"I watched the whole game. They had over 300 yards rushing and over 300 yards passing. It doesn't matter who you do that against, that's a pretty good offensive team. Larry Rose is a good tailback. They were behind 30-7 and fought back and won the football game. They've been close all year and I think my statement at the beginning of the year that those teams that were down at the bottom, which we're about ready to face, are better." – head coach Dennis Franchione.