Football | 11/25/2016 11:12:00 PM

We shouldn't take anything for granted in life; something that truly resonated last week when Texas State played its final road game of the season at New Mexico State.  We don't tend to put a lot of deep thought into simply getting from "point A to point B", but last week's bus ride from team headquarters in El Paso to Las Cruces was anything but routine.  I was fortunate to have taken a rental car with the rest of the radio crew and was not on one of the three team buses when an accident took place involving all three vehicles as they made their way west on I-10.  We received the news just as we were about to pull into Aggie Memorial Stadium and immediately my mind cleared itself of football as I thought about nothing more than those who were on the buses. 
 
According to those who were there, traffic on I-10 had come to a stop and while the first two team buses stopped in time, the third bus did not, leading to a chain reaction collision.  Six individuals had to be transported to a local medical facility for further evaluation, and while none of the injuries were reportedly serious in nature, the mere fact that the accident occurred had to be unnerving to all of those involved. 
 
It was hard for me to concentrate on my game day duties-- I can only imagine what it was like for the players, coaches and staff members who were on those buses and how difficult it was for them to shift their focus to the matter at hand.  While not one person has served up the incident as an excuse for the way things played out, it would be easy to understand if the accident had some sort of effect on the game, a 50-10 win for New Mexico State.  The Aggies deserve a lot of credit for the way they played; a good offense all season long, New Mexico State showed what it was capable of when it cut out its mistakes while capitalizing on Texas State's.  It's nearly impossible to win a game when committing five turnovers while only getting one of your own, and the Bobcats unfortunately found that out the hard way last Saturday.
 
Again however, the result and really the game itself became secondary given what transpired earlier in day.  I'm happy to report everyone who made the trip to Las Cruces also made the trip back to San Marcos and that's a win in my book.  As for getting a win in the proverbial football book, the Bobcats will have their work cut out for them against the 8-2 Troy Trojans this Saturday in San Marcos.  Here are five things you should know about the game.
 
1) Troy Is-- Once Again-- One of the Sun Belt's Elite Teams
It feels as if Troy has been in the Sun Belt Conference for ages, but it wasn't that long ago that the Trojans were playing FCS football-- once sharing a conference with Texas State in the Southland Football League in the mid-to-late 90s.  The Trojans didn't make the jump to the FBS until 2001 and didn't join the Sun Belt until 2004-- just 12 years ago. 
 
When they first arrived, the Trojans took the Sun Belt by storm, posting a 7-5 record and second-place finish in their first season in the conference.  After a small blip on the radar in 2005, Troy steamrolled through the conference by winning five straight Sun Belt titles from 2006 to 2010 and wound up going to five bowl games in their first seven seasons in the conference.
 
Then the Trojan empire collapsed. 
 
After winning a share of the conference title and making a trip to the New Orleans Bowl in 2010, Troy went through a dry spell, suffering three losing seasons over the next four years, twice finishing 3-9.  The last of those 3-9 seasons was also the last season for legendary Head Coach Larry Blakeney whose namesake now adorns Veterans Memorial Stadium at Troy. 
 
Enter Neal Brown who served as Blakeney's offensive coordinator for two seasons (2008 & 2009).  Brown, the fourth youngest coach in the FBS at 36-years-old, suffered through some growing pains last year as Troy went just 4-8. However, everything has come together for the Trojans this season.  Behind a well-developed offense and influx of transfers to help shore up the defense, Troy has arguably been the Sun Belt's best overall team this season, and appeared to be on its way to becoming one of the best Sun Belt teams ever.  This year's Trojans not only were the first Sun Belt team ever to start 8-1, but also the first to ever garner a Top 25 ranking. 
 
However, Arkansas State, the kings of the Sun Belt a year ago, reminded Troy that a run to the conference title still has to go through them as the Red Wolves humbled the Trojans 35-3 last Thursday.  After such a lopsided defeat, I expect that Texas State will see an extremely focused football team take the field at Bobcat Stadium on Saturday.
 
2) Troy's Offensive Line is Paving the Way for the Trojans' Success
The Trojans boast arguably the Sun Belt's best quarterback-running back tandem in Brandon Silvers and Jordan Chunn, and Troy's trio of starting receivers (Emmanuel Thompson, Deondre Douglas and John Johnson) are each having career seasons.  Coach Brown has a knack for building explosive offenses and he has done just that since arriving at Troy. In his 22 games as head coach, the Trojans have scored 50 or more five times, including three this season. That was something Troy did just once in its previous 66 games. 
 
Chunn is the second-leading rusher in the Sun Belt while Silvers ranks second in the conference in passing yards.  Here's the most incredible stat though: Silvers has attempted 357 passes this season, second-most in the Sun Belt, and has been sacked exactly five times.
 
Read that again: 357 pass attempts, five sacks.  So out of 362 drop backs (not counting scrambles), Silvers has been sacked on precisely 1.3% of them this season.  That just seems impossible.  Yes, the pass offense is designed for quick reads on Silvers' part (he's only averaging seven yards per pass attempt) but still, that's impressive.  The five sacks surrendered is the fewest in the country which is also incredible considering how much the Trojans throw the ball compared to the option-heavy offenses out there such as Navy, Air Force, Georgia Tech etc.
 
Credit a veteran offensive line which has three seniors including pre-season First-Team All-Sun Belt Conference selection Antonio Garcia, who might be the best left tackle in the Sun Belt.  Silvers was sacked twice against Arkansas State last week so maybe there was a crack in the foundation discovered by the Red Wolves.
 
3) Troy is Good Enough to Overcome Mistakes 
Something that's become very apparent through Texas State's first 10 games is that the margin for error for the Bobcats is razor thin.  When a team struggles as the Bobcats have this season, any mistake committed tends to weigh heavily.  Troy on the other hand, has been able to brush their mistakes away like they've been no big deal.  That's the difference between a team learning how to win and one that already knows how to.  Troy has committed the third highest amount of turnovers in the Sun Belt and is the most penalized team in the conference in terms of yards, yet here the Trojans stand at 8-2.
 
That said, it's a dangerous precedent to set, one that can eventually come back to haunt you as Troy discovered last week.  The Trojans committed five turnovers against Arkansas State and really the Red Wolves let them off a bit easy only turning those into 14 points.  The Bobcats of course turned the ball over five times last week as well and, like the Trojans, paid for it as New Mexico State turned those mistakes into 28 points.
 
Another five turnover game for the Bobcats would be death kneel against a team like Troy, but if the Trojans are careless with the ball again, that could be Texas State's window for an upset.  Just note that Troy has made a habit of overcoming them.
 
4) Troy Has Rebuilt Its Wall of Defense
Coach Brown's creed since coming to Troy has been to "Rebuild The Wall", hence the #RTW references on social media.  He has certainly rebuilt his defense that's for sure.  The season prior to Brown's arrival, Troy surrendered over 36 points per game and ranked in the bottom fourth of the Sun Belt in total defense.  Last year, the Trojans gave up just 28 points per game and ranked third in total defense.  This season, the numbers are even better (23 PPG, 2^nd in total defense).
 
In fact, Troy ranks in the Top 3 in every major defensive category (points, total yards, rush defense, sacks, turnovers, third downs, red zone) except one: pass defense, and the only reason for that is because teams are forced to throw the ball as Troy's opponents are quite often playing from behind.  Bandit End Rashard Dillard has been Troy's best pass rusher (12.5 TFL and 6.5 sacks), while converted walk-on wide receiver turned cornerback Blace Brown leads the secondary with six interceptions-- tied for the third most in the FBS.
 
This is a pin-your-ears-back, aggressive defense that plays extremely well with the lead.  The Bobcats will have to catch Troy being overly aggressive (like Arkansas State did last week) to be successful on offense.
 
5) The Bobcats Need To Win First and Second Down
This is something that's been well-chronicled in this space throughout the season, but it rings true again on Saturday.  While I've noted the Bobcats' third down numbers, here are some figures to take note of when watching Troy on offense:
 

Down and distance	Conversion Rate
Third and 3 or shorter	64%
Third and 4 to 6 yards	34%
Third and 7 to 9 yards	18%
Third and 10 or longer	18%

 
While those numbers seem fairly obvious (uh, yeah, it's easier to convert shorter distances), it's worth mentioning how much more frequently Troy has created the first of those four situations.  Troy has faced third down 145 times this season.  They have faced third and 3 (or less) 45 times, or 31% of their 3^rd down situations.  The second most frequent?  You guessed it, third and 4-to-6 yards to go (35 times or 24%).
 
Bottom lining it: for the Bobcats to win on Saturday, they have got to win first and second down to create harder third downs for Troy's offense and turn the Trojans one-dimensional in those situations.  Texas State has to also limit its mistakes while not only forcing Troy into mistakes of its own, but capitalizing on them as Arkansas State did a week ago. 
 
And those are just five things you should know about Texas State vs Troy this Saturday.  Enjoy the game, get there safe and Eat 'Em Up!